A classic severe weather set-up and outbreak are forecast to happen across the Mississippi Valley on Thursday. The SPC has outlined much of the area in a moderate risk for severe weather as widespread and organized severe weather will occur which includes damaging winds, very large hail, flash flooding, and tornadoes. The moderate risk is for most of Arkansas and portions of Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana. It includes the cities of Memphis, Paducah, St. Louis, Springfield, Ft. Smith, Little Rock, and Greenville. Outside the moderate risk area, the SPC has areas from eastern Texas to the Central Ohio outlined a slight risk for severe weather. Some of the larger cities that could be impacted are Houston, Shreveport, Dallas, Tulsa, Indianapolis, Columbus, Cincinnati, Louisville, Nashville, and Jackson. As
the day progresses, a trough will be emerging from the Rockies and will be providing a very dynamic atmosphere over the region. These dynamics will cause an area of low pressure to develop at the surface, where it will enhance the shear and uplift. Finally, strong southerly winds will bring in a very warm and moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico, and this air mass will provide the fuel for the storms. With all these ingredients coming together it will be setting the stage for a very dangerous and volatile situation. Through the day, there will be a chance for storms to develop at any point, but we will be watching areas in the western part of the risk area as the dry-line will allow for the initial development of storms before the cold front moves into the region. The storms will likely start off producing large and damaging hail. By later in the day, discrete supercells will develop and as the wind shear increases, the tornado threat will increase as well. This threat will last for several hours before everything should merge into a squall line. This squall line will then race off towards the east and will produce a significant damaging straight-line wind threat. There will also be a flooding threat and we are beginning to see weather service offices issue flash flood watches in some of the areas that will be impacted. It will certainly be a very busy day for severe weather. Please make sure you pay close attention to the weather if you are in these areas that will be impacted. Be ready for severe weather, have a plan in place, and make sure you have a way to receive severe weather notifications. MyWARN is a great way to receive the severe weather alerts that are only for your exact location. Follow us on Twitter. Like us on Facebook. Add us to your Google+ circles. MyWARN is available in the Google Play Store and as always our very popular iOS version is available for download in the iTunes Store. Get MyWARN now from the iTunes Store and the Google Play Store.